Ensemble Prediction Systems

Reasons for being in news

The Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES) has commissioned two very high resolution state-of-the-art global Ensemble Prediction Systems (EPS) for generating operational 10-days probabilistic forecasts of weather.

About Ensemble Prediction Systems (EPS)

Ensemble forecasting is a method used in numerical weather prediction. Instead of making a single forecast of the most likely weather, a set (or ensemble) of forecasts is produced. This set of forecasts aims to give an indication of the range of possible future states of the atmosphere.

Features of Ensemble Prediction Systems (EPS)

1 . The EPS involves the generation of multiple forecasts using slightly varying initial conditions.

2 . The EPS will enhance the weather information being provided by the current models by quantifying the uncertainties in the weather forecasts and generate probabilistic forecasts.

3 . The frameworks of the new EPSs are among the best weather prediction systems in the world at present. Very few forecasting centres in the world use this high resolution for short-medium range probabilistic weather forecasts.

4 . The probabilistic forecasts of severe weather events at 12 km grid scale across India will greatly help the disaster management authorities and other users in making better emergency response decisions by explicitly accounting for the uncertainty in weather forecasts.

5 . The probabilistic forecasts will also be very useful for various sectors of the economy including agriculture, water resources, tourism and renewable energy.

Predictions by Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES) in past few years

Over the past few years, the quality of weather and climate services provided by this Ministry has improved significantly due to systematic efforts in augmenting atmospheric and ocean observing systems in the region, improving the high performance computational capability to 8.0 petaflops, implementing high-resolution global models and advanced data assimilation techniques for ingesting data from Indian and International satellites, conducting cutting edge research and investing in human resources development.

The successes in predicting the Tropical Cyclones Phailin/Hudhud, heavy rainfall events and heat waves are the best examples of the improvement in prediction capability during the recent years.